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The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Increases After Four Consecutive Declines

 

Aug 1 - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had declined in June, improved slightly in July. The index now stands at 65.9 (1985=100), up from 62.7 in June. The Expectations Index improved to 79.1 from 73.4. The Present Situation Index, however, decreased slightly to 46.2 from 46.6 a month ago. The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was July 19.

Said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board, “Despite this month’s improvement in confidence, the overall Index remains at historically low levels. Consumers’ attitudes regarding current conditions were little changed in July, but their short-term expectations, which had declined last month, bounced back. However, while consumers expressed greater optimism about short-term business and employment prospects, they have grown more pessimistic about their earnings. Given the current economic environment — in particular the weak labor market — consumer confidence is not likely to gain any significant momentum in the coming months.”

Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions eased in July. Those claiming business conditions are “good” declined to 13.8 percent from 14.2 percent, while those saying business conditions are “bad” decreased to 34.2 percent from 35.9 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was also mixed. Those stating jobs are “hard to get” declined to 40.8 percent from 41.2 percent, while those claiming jobs are “plentiful” decreased to 7.8 percent from 8.3 percent.

On the other hand, consumers were generally more optimistic about the short-term outlook in July. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months rose to 18.9 percent from 16 percent, while those anticipating business conditions will worsen decreased to 14.6 percent from 15.8 percent. Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was also more upbeat in July. Those expecting more jobs in the months ahead increased to 17.6 percent from 14.8 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs edged down to 20.3 percent from 20.8 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes, however, declined to 14.2 percent from 15.3 percent.

 


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